Saturday, May 9, 2020
Student describes the COVID-19 Pandemic and policy responses to it
Saturday, April 25, 2020
Student writes a letter in support of the ELEVATE act to end long-term unemployment
- Look up the actual bill number and write about the specific bill. This is S.1920 Long-Term Unemployment Elimination Act of 2019.
- Find out where in the process it is and ask for help getting it through. It was introduced and read twice in the Senate and has been referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.
- Made some assessment as to whether this policy is bi-partisan or has the potential to be so, or whether it is “Republican” or “Democratic” legislation, in which case, since it is a Senate Bill, it’s odds of passage depend upon it being a Republican Bill without strong opposition from the Democratic Senators or else a Democratic Bill with the real potential of gaining some support from Republicans. Making that assessment, you should have made your request to someone in the context of what sort of bill this is in terms of partisan politics and ideologies. In fact, this bill is a Democratic Bill, and the co-sponsors seem to be thinking that this bill is a sort of trial run for similar legislation they might be able to pass if the Democrats take the White House and the Senate next year. As both your Senators are Democrats, it might be worthwhile seeing whether they might find some Republican colleagues who could support the bill, or even persuade the Republicans to pass this sort of bill into law "for the good of the country" right away.
- You have addressed your work to “To Whom It May Concern” when this is a Senate Bill. The correct target for your letter is either of your senators, Duckworth or Durbin. Alternatively, you could have written a letter to the Chair of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (Republican Lamar Alexander of Tennessee) or the ranking minority member (Democrat Patty Murray of Washington). Even better, you might have found some Republican Senators on the committee that needs to hear this before it goes to the Senate floor for a vote, and tried to make a case that would be persuasive to a Republican (a conservative) in favor of the bill.
- You could have chosen another one or two or three sources to provide you with arguments for why this is a good bill. You have relied entirely on Samuel Hammond’s article in the Niskanen Center (a good source that relies on authentic experts and offers a mix of moderate conservative and liberal ideologies in its biases). That is actually the best source I could find, and even the $2 a Day website links to it. Given the idea that you ought to spend a couple hours at least in researching a paper, you might have also considered these sources I turned up with a Google Search using "long term unemployment" and "senate":
The summary of the bill made by one of the sponsors of it: https://www.vanhollen.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Van_Hollen_Long_Term_Unemployment_Pen_and_Pad.pdf
The article praising the bill (authors are Mark Paul and Dean Baker, and Dean Baker is one of the best economists I know of): https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/07/01/how-to-put-an-end-to-long-term-unemployment/
Or this article and the sources to which it links: https://nationalinitiatives.wordpress.com/2019/06/24/the-long-term-unemployment-elimination-act-creating-access-to-employment-equity-opportunity/ - You could have done a bit more writing in your own voice instead of the high level of paraphrasing and quoting you used. In an actual letter, I think the staff person (or the actual senator) who reads your letter can tell the difference between the “voice” of a constituent and the “voice” of a lobbyist who tells constituents what to say. You will be more persuasive if you study what the proponents or opponents of a bill have to say, and then write your own argument using your own understanding. The second best strategy is to offer a series of direct quotations or a longer block quotation and then offer your own paragraph summarizing and interpreting the implications of what you have just quoted.
- You might have thought of reasons people would oppose the bill, given a fair representation of arguments against it, and then explained why those anticipated arguments were not strong enough to overwhelm your case.
Monday, April 30, 2018
Student reacts to decline in unemployment among persons with disabilities
Sunday, April 29, 2018
Student wants Social Security to refer denied disability applicants to job services
If you look at this chart from the Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2016, you will see that more and more applications for Social Security Disability Insurance are being denied.
Final outcome of disabled-worker applications, 2006–2015The final award rate for disabled-worker applicants has varied over time, averaging 34 percent for claims filed from 2006 through 2015. The percentage of applicants awarded benefits at the initial claims level averaged 23 percent over the same period and ranged from a high of 25 percent to a low of 20 percent. The percentage of applicants awarded at the reconsideration and hearing levels are averaging 2 percent and 9 percent, respectively. Denied disability claims have averaged 62 percent.
[ Student in SWK-355 Policy and Services course ]
Monday, November 21, 2016
Student offers introduction to unemployment insurance
Unemployment Insurance, an Introduction
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Unemployment and Poverty
For example, let’s imagine someone in a human resources department in Springfield has a pile of several equivalent job applications and resumes. Some come from people who graduated from a high school known for many behavioral problems, a school with a high drop-out rate, a school in a high-crime neighborhood. Perhaps the firm doing the hiring has had some employees who graduated from that high school or lived in the neighborhoods around that school, and those employees were seen as lazy and dishonest. Other applicants attended the school in town with a reputation for having the smartest students, and the most well-behaved students. Students who attend this better school tend to live in middle-class or wealthier areas of the city. The boss of the firm attended that high school, and the human resources person making a hiring decision knows many people whose children now attend that high school. Even without knowing the race of the job candidates, a human resources person may slightly prefer candidates from the better background and the better high school. Let’s say the better high school has a student body that is 25% African-American while the school with the worse reputation is 60% African-American. Simply by looking at neighborhoods and schools attended (holding grades and the personal behavior of the applicants constant) a human resources person might already have a non-racial bias that will lead to preferences with racial implications.
First reaction paper I'm sharing this semester: The Real Unemployment Rate
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Current unemployment rates in March of 2011 (as reported in April)
8.4 | millions of part-time workers who want to work full-time |
0.921 | millions of persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them, but they wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months |
13.5 | millions of unemployed persons |
153.406 | Millions of persons in the official civilian labor force |
8.80% | Official Unemployment rate |
14.79% | Actual unemployment and underemployment rate |
154.327 | Millions of persons in the civilian labor force if we include discouraged workers |
22.821 | Millions of persons who are unemployed, involuntarily part-time employed, or discouraged workers out of the labor-force but desiring a job. |
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Looking at the employment figures for January
What are the most recent seasonally adjusted number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs?
In January, the number of persons unemployed due to job loss decreased by 378,000 to 9.3 million. Nearly all of this decline occurred among permanent job losers.
Unemployment rate. 9.7% in January.
... in January, ... nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000).
In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent.
In January, unemployment rates for most major worker groups-
-adult men (10.0 percent),
teenagers (26.4 percent),
blacks (16.5 percent), and
Hispanics (12.6 percent)-
-showed little change. The jobless rate for adult women fell to 7.9 percent, and the rate for whites declined to 8.7 percent.
The labor force participation rate of persons with a disability was 21.8 percent, compared with 70.1 percent for those without a disability.
We have 6.3 million long-term unemployed out of 9.3 million officially unemployed. When we’re not in a recession the typical number of long-term unemployed is about 1.3 million. The recession has given us a group of about 5 million Americans who are facing long-term unemployment that we wouldn’t have in normal economic times.
64.7% of working-aged civilians who aren’t in institutions are in the labor force (employed or looking for unemployment).
There are 237 million working-aged civilians who don’t live in institutions.
About 153 million of these persons are working or looking for work.
That’s 64.7% of us of working age who are employed.
about 14.8 million of us are unemployed and looking for work.
Another 6.1 million of us are not in the labor force, but we would be working if we could find a job. (within this 6.1 million, there are 2.1 million who have looked for work in the past 12 months, but they hadn’t looked for work in late December or early January because they couldn’t work just then, but they were ready to work in late January. Within the 6.1 million there are another 1.1 million discouraged workers, who had looked for work in the past 12 months, but just didn’t look for work in late December or early January because they had given up hope of finding a job).
If we add these 3.2 million persons who have left the labor force but say they want a job and have looked for a job in the past 12 months, we get 18 million persons who are officially unemployed or involuntarily out of the labor force (but this also increase the labor force from 153 million to 156.2 million).
Then let’s add underemployment. There are 26.9 million of the 153 persons working are working part-time (that means really only 126.1 million of us are working full-time). Of these 26.9 million part-time workers, 8.3 million say they would rather be working full-time, but their hours have been cut at work or they weren’t able to find a full-time job.
Adding these 8.3 million to the 18 million unemployed gives us 26.3 million who want full-time jobs but don’t have full-time jobs. With a labor force of 156.2 million, that gives us a rate of 16.8% for our real unemployment and underemployment rate.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Unemployment at 8.1%
Growing up as a student in high school and college in the 1980s, I grew up learning about unemployment rates of 10% (1982-1983). And even in college in the late 1980s, the unemployment rate seemed "great" when it was got down to 5.5%, and briefly even 5% (in 1989). So, I sort of had the idea that the "normal" range for unemployment was between 5% and 8% or so. Then, I lived through the 1990s. After the 1992 recession the unemployment rates kept dropping, and they slowly dropped all the way to 2000, by which time we had rates of 3.8% & 3.9% for some months. In the George W. Bush administration we had rates go up from 4.2% to 6.3% (in the summer of 2003), but then rates dropped back down to 4.4% (exactly two years ago, in March of 2007).
The thing is, a year ago we were still at 4.8%, and we the economy has been shedding jobs at a horrific rate. In the last six months (September '08 to February '09) the rates went 6.2%, 6.6%, 6.8%, 7.2%, 7.6%, 8.1%. That doesn't look to me like we're seeing any sort of slow-down. Looking back and the historical data for the start of that ugly recession in 1981-1983 I don't even see any 6-month period with a growth in unemployment like this. And in the past recessions the increases in the unemployment rate slow down before they hit the top, and then they sort of hang out at the high unemployment rates for a while and very slowly improve.
Clinton came into office in 1993 after unemployment had peaked (at 7.8% in 1992), and in this first year in office with a Democratic Party-controlled Congress the unemployment rate only went down from 7.3% to 6.6%. By the end of Clinton's second year in office unemployment had only dropped to 5.6%.
I guess what I'm thinking is that employment recoveries from peaks of unemployment take years (two or three, at least). Also, this recession is on track to be as bad as the one Ronald Reagan inflicted on us in the early 1980s. It took about two years for unemployment to drop back down from the high of 10.8% (in the winter of 1982-1983) to a rate around 7.2% (the rate in December of 1980, Carter's last full month in office). It then took a little over two additional years for unemployment to get to 6.3% (finally seen in April of 1987), which was the rate we had in January of 1980, the start of Carter's last year in office.
Well, I'm more optimistic about the president and congress we have now. The people running the nation now are far more likely to find solutions than the people we had running the show in the early 1980s.